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Spring breakup, Yukon 2017 Photo G. Sim


THOUGHTS ON GLOBAL WARMING

I have been working on this commentary for some time, doing bits of research as required. A 2018 UN report on global warming stated that the human race needed to triple its efforts in order to have the slightest chance to control our effects on the world. In 2021 they issued an even more dire and disastrous report. I give up, it isn't going to happen, it is too late to stop. The arrogantly-titled "anthropocene" is about to crash and burn. That's right. You heard it here first. I predict the end of the world, at least in terms of human civilization. This may seem presumptuous of me, but enough facts are now on the table to point to this inevitable conclusion.

Everyone can see that the world's climate is changing. One of the problems, even with people who accept this and are concerned about global warming, is that people seem to think that we can "fix" it. We cannot. The process is now well under way, and we cannot stop it. The ongoing "debate" about its cause or causes is thus meaningless, and putative solutions such as "going green" or starting to bicycle to work are equally meaningless. Think of it like this: we're on the edge of a cliff and have pushed a huge boulder over the edge of the cliff. The boulder is falling, crashing, smashing and destroying things as it falls. Not pushing more boulders over the edge of the cliff won't stop the damage that is already happening.

The real problem is people, the seven billion over-sized termites who are busy consuming this world. These termites continue to breed and multiply in a completely uncontrolled way, and are about to reach their peak population. Then will come the crash. These large termites require a lot of resources to live. They will continue to consume what is left of the earth’s resources at increasing speed, even as they choke in more and more of their own excrement and pollution. That's the future, and it is just getting filthier.

We can’t control our governments, and countries all over the world are in the hands of nutters and total whackos. It's been getting worse in recent years. Dictators are on the rise around the world: Russia, Syria, Brazil, Philippines, Belorus, Iran, Iraq, too many to mention.

After a couple of centuries of "progress" since the industrial revolution, the question is now applicable to everyone: "What have we wrought?" Ice is melting all over the globe, glaciers are disappearing, huge ice shelves are breaking off the Antarctic. In the past few years four major chunks of ice have broken off, totalling almost 3,400 square miles of ice. Ice is now breaking off about six times faster than it did a few years ago. It is estimated that if the East Antarctic ice sheet melts it will raise sea levels around the world by 175 feet. Greenland is now ringed by shores of burning peatmoss, as its ice sheet retreats. The soot and smoke from those fires is accelerating the melting. I predict that the entire remaining Greenland ice sheet will slither off into the ocean any day now. Scientists have started talking about the Gulf Stream being disrupted, in addition to all the hurricanes that have happened recently.

The last annual rise in sea level was measured at 1/4 inch, but it's just getting started, it is rising by an increasing amount every year. NASA estimates the oceans to rise 26 inches by the year 2100, but this shows a very small incremental growth in rise per year. That report also notes that this number is "almost certainly a conservative estimate."

Agreed. Let's do some arithmetic. At the current rise of 1/4 inch per year (with no annual increase) times 80 years to 2100, we'd have a sea level rise of 20 inches, using a straight line projection, which is only six inches less than NASA's (conservative) estimate. Even if the rate of rise increases by 1/16 inch per year (it is already increasing more than that), it would go from 1/4 inch annual rise to 5-1/4" inches annual rise in 2100. Average that over 80 years x 2.625 inches = minimum 200 inches by Sim prediction, call it seventeen feet global rise. Conservatively. Let's go wild and say that a number of other "conditions" help to accelerate the warming and the melting, and we go underwater a depth of 50 feet by 2100.


2021 UPDATE: apparently the ocean is now rising 1/2" a year, which is close to my projected rise of 1/4" more per year/per year from two years ago when I started this article. Uh oh, the numbers have doubled every year! Let's look at it in a table:

Rise 25-yr AVG 2019 2020
1/2"
7/16"
3/8"
5/16"
1/4"
3/16"
1/8"
1/16"
Approximate annual rise in sea level: 2018 to 2020

The sea level rose three inches from 1993 to 2017, or an average of about 1/8" per year. Thermal expansion of the oceans caused 42% of the sea level rise, as the oceans warmed up. (how much can it continue to expand, I wonder) The remainder was contributed by melting glaciers, and melting from Greenland and the Antarctic. The Antarctic continues to shed huge chunks of ice. Iceberg A-76 broke off in May 2021 and was 4,320 square kilometers in size, or about 100 miles long by 15 miles wide. Greenland had a record year of melting in 2012, and again in 2021. It rained on the highest point of Greenland for the first time in recorded history.



At this point, the installation of flood control gates to protect Venice is worthy of note. As of 2019, apparently $10 billion (six billion euros) had been spent, the project was years behind schedule, and there was no functional flood control in place. Only a couple of actual flood control panels had been installed and tested. It looked to me from the pictures that the panels were only designed to stop a rise of about four feet of seawater, something like an extra-high tide (acqua alta), certainly not 17 feet of higher ocean, let alone 50 feet or 200 feet. If folks really want to save Venice, I recommend that any further money should be spent on moving whatever can be saved to higher ground.


2021 UPDATE: The system was actually completed in 2019, and has twice now "saved" Venice from flooding, or at least from partial flooding. So, it works, but only for seasonal high tides, and even then only barely. I'm sure there are high ongoing maintenance costs.


Large corporations are rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of building such "sea defences" for cities and lands all over the world, snorkeling in billions or trillions of dollars from the public trough along the way. When that work proves futile, as it will in Venice and elsewhere, there will be no "money back guarantee" of course, but the contractors will be happy to sign more contracts to build more sea defences further away from the shoreline. Burp.

Once you head inland, fleeing the ocean's rise, any land not already desertified will soon be so either from fire or drought, i.e. the Amazon, northern Russia, Greenland, California, BC, northern Alberta, Australia, etc. Heat and drought records are being set everywhere, accompanied by crop failures and reduction of arable land, and has anyone noticed that there is an increasing number of super-hurricanes? The oceans are warming, driving fish towards the poles, even as we harvest them in ever increasing numbers, wiping out one “fish stock” after another. Huge "dead zones" are forming in the ocean, and new Sargasso seas of garbage are floating around. Fresh water is being consumed or disappearing all over the world, as the deserts continue their march to the poles. Countries and corporations are racing to "lock up" access to water, it won't be free anywhere in the world for much longer.


2021 UPDATE: The last two years have seen some absolutely horrible devastation from wildfires. Australians were burned right down to the waterline, the town of Paradise in California was wiped out in minutes, as was the town of Lytton in 2021. In that summer entire cities in BC were on evacuation alert. Huge super-fires are creating their own weather with pyrocumulonimbus clouds, their own lightning storms, fire tornadoes, and chunks of burning material falling out of the sky 10 miles in advance of the actual fires.

The Western USA is gripped by a drought that won't end, all rivers and reservoirs are at historic low levels. Soon dams won't be generating electricity, and farmers won't be watering crops. What's left will burn, and then everything will blow away.



It is too late to stop what the earth is now doing. Billions will die this century no matter what we do. Some from old age, but most will die from starvation, thirst, disease, fire, flooding, super-hurricane, and the inevitable wars, genocides, and political pograms.

There are few ways to proceed. One. Don’t believe any of this crap, and do nothing. You might as well, you can’t stop it. Two. Try to find a place to hide and stock up before everything falls apart. Three. Do everything possible in your own life to reduce consumption, knowing that it won’t make a bit of difference to global warming, but it will make you feel better about yourself. Four. Die. Encourage others to die. Encourage about 4,000,000,000 people to die, that would leave about as many of us alive as the earth can currently sustain. The party is over. Please try to behave nicely as you head for the exit.



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